Bayesian Inference for ARFIMA Models

This article develops practical methods for Bayesian inference in the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model using the exact likelihood function, any proper prior distribution, and time series that may have thousands of observations. These methods utilize sequentially adaptive Bayesian learning, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that can exploit massively parallel desktop computing with graphics processing units (GPUs). The article identifies and solves several problems in the computation of the likelihood function that apparently have not been addressed in the literature. Four applications illustrate the utility of the approach. The most ambitious is an ARFIMA(2,d,2) model for the Campito tree ring time series (length 5405), for which the methods developed in the article provide an essentially uncorrelated sample of size 16,384 from the exact posterior distribution in under four hours. Less ambitious applications take as little as 4 minutes without exploiting GPUs.     

Colostrum source and passive immunity transfer in dairy bull calves

Colostrum is essential for good neonate health; however, it is not known whether different calves absorb the nutrients from colostrum equally well. In this study, the absorption of protein, IgG, and γ-glutamyl transferase was compared in newborn dairy bull calves for 1 wk after feeding colostrum from different sources. Thirty-five Holstein-Friesian bull calves were randomly allocated into 3 groups and fed colostrum within 4 h after birth. Group A calves (n = 12) were bottle fed colostrum from their own dam for 3 d. Colostrum from these group A cows was also used as foster cow colostrum for the group B calves (n = 12), such that each group A and B calf pair received identical colostrum from each milking of the respective group A dam (10% of birth weight per day). The group C calves (n = 11) were fed 1 bottle (2 L) of pooled colostrum and transition milk (referred to as pooled colostrum), as was the standard practice on the dairy farm. The pooled colostrum was collected from the other dairy cows on the farm 0 to 4 d postpartum and stored at 4°C for less than 12 h. Blood was sampled from calves before the first feeding and at 1, 2, 3, and 7 d after birth. Levels of total solids, total protein, and IgG were higher in the dam colostrum than in the pooled colostrum. At birth, there were no differences between the calf groups for any measurements, and all calves had very low IgG levels. After receiving colostrum, the glucose, plasma γ-glutamyl transferase, serum total protein, and IgG concentrations increased significantly in all calves. There were no differences in any blood measurements at any time point between the pairs of group A and group B calves that received colostrum from the same cow except for the IgG concentration 2 d after birth. However, the group A calves had a higher total serum protein level and IgG concentration than the group C calves for all the time points after the first feeding. The group B calves had a higher IgG concentration than the group C calves on d 1, 2, and 7 after birth. Compared with groups A and B, there was no difference in the proportion of calves in group C that failed to have passive immunity transferred adequately based on the IgG threshold (<10 g/L). Thus, the calves receiving identical colostrum from the same cow had the same levels of IgG, and even the pooled colostrum provided sufficient transfer of IgG as the calves were fed within 4 h after birth.     

Evaluation of the degree of rate control via automatic differentiation

The degree of rate control (DRC) quantitatively identifies the kinetically relevant (sometimes known as rate-limiting) steps of a complex reaction network. This concept relies on derivatives which are commonly implemented numerically, for example, with finite differences (FDs). Numerical derivatives are tedious to implement, and can be problematic, and unstable or unreliable. In this study, we demonstrate the use of automatic differentiation (AD) in the evaluation of the DRC. AD libraries are increasingly available through modern machine learning frameworks. Compared with the FDs, AD provides solutions with higher accuracy with lower computational cost. We demonstrate applications in steady-state and transient kinetics. Furthermore, we illustrate a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method, the distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis, to assess the importance of kinetic parameters over an uncertain space. This method also benefits from AD to obtain high-quality results efficiently.     

Sampling of Volatiles in Closed Systems: A Controlled Comparison of Three Solventless Volatile Collection Methods

Journal of Chemical Ecology - Complex inter-organismal communication among plants, insects, and microbes in natural and agricultural ecological systems is typically governed by emitted and...     

Cyclophilin Inhibition Protects Against Experimental Acute Kidney Injury and Renal Interstitial Fibrosis

Cyclophilins have important homeostatic roles, but following tissue injury, cyclophilin A (CypA) can promote leukocyte recruitment and inflammation, while CypD can facilitate mitochondrial-dependent cell death. This study investigated the therapeutic potential of a selective cyclophilin inhibitor (GS-642362), which does not block calcineurin function, in mouse models of tubular cell necrosis and renal fibrosis. Mice underwent bilateral renal ischemia/reperfusion injury (IRI) and were killed 24 h later: treatment with 10 or 30 mg/kg/BID GS-642362 (or vehicle) began 1 h before surgery. In the second model, mice underwent unilateral ureteric obstruction (UUO) surgery and were killed 7 days later; treatment with 10 or 30 mg/kg/BID GS-642362 (or vehicle) began 1 h before surgery. GS-642362 treatment gave a profound and dose-dependent protection from acute renal failure in the IRI model. This protection was associated with reduced tubular cell death, including a dramatic reduction in neutrophil infiltration. In the UUO model, GS-642362 treatment significantly reduced tubular cell death, macrophage infiltration, and renal fibrosis. This protective effect was independent of the upregulation of IL-2 and activation of the stress-activated protein kinases (p38 and JNK). In conclusion, GS-642362 was effective in suppressing both acute kidney injury and renal fibrosis. These findings support further investigation of cyclophilin blockade in other types of acute and chronic kidney disease.     

Numerical Evaluation of Grouting Scenarios for Reducing Water Inflows from Major Faults in Underground Excavations

Mine Water and the Environment - Water inflows through fracture networks are a major economic and safety issue in underground mines. Although pre-grouting of pilot holes during mine development...     

Continuation methods for approximate large scale object sequencing

Machine Learning - We propose a set of highly scalable algorithms for the combinatorial data analysis problem of seriating similarity matrices. Seriation consists of finding a permutation of data...